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Thagorus

The weather effect

Weather drives up to 30% of demand variation across consumer categories. Most performance marketing teams treat it as noise.

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01

$2.3 trillion in
blind spots

Every year, weather-sensitive consumer spending flows through channels where no one is watching the sky. Apparel, food & beverage, energy, travel, pharmacy, home improvement — all responding to atmospheric rhythms that marketing models can’t hear.

30%
of retail demand variation is weather-driven
02

It’s not rain
equals umbrellas

A 3°C temperature anomaly in week 12 shifts allergen load, which shifts pharmacy demand 9 days later, which cannibalizes discretionary health spend. Weather effects are nonlinear, lagged, and category-specific.

Simple correlations miss the mechanism entirely.

03

The gap between
forecast and action

Weather forecasts tell you what the sky will do. They don’t tell you what your customers will do. That translation — from atmospheric state to demand signal — requires causal inference, not correlation.

9 days
average lag between weather event and demand response
04

Causal, not
correlational

Thagorus builds structural causal models that separate weather’s true effect from confounders — seasonality, promotions, holidays, macro trends. We isolate why demand moves, not just that it moved.

Each model is identified per-market and per-category, capturing the specific atmospheric dynamics that matter for your business.

05

One API call,
every market

Send us your market coordinates. We return weather-adjusted demand forecasts with confidence intervals, backtested proof, and recommended budget adjustments — for every market you operate in, every day.

384
markets supported
14
consumer categories
06

Proof attached,
always

Every recommendation ships with a backtest window, uncertainty bounds, and break conditions. If our model would have been wrong, we tell you before you act.

No black boxes. No trust-me outputs. Evidence you can audit.

See your markets
through weather

Request a sample proof bundle for your category. We’ll show you what weather has been doing to your demand — and what you can do about it.

Request Access →